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Ranked-choice voting (RCV), proposed as Ballot Question 3 on the November 2024 Nevada ballot, seeks to amend the state constitution and dramatically change our election process for the foreseeable future. In honor of the 80th anniversary of the landings at Normandy, I’ve decided to use D-Day to explain its harmful consequences. Consider a hypothetical election among three historical candidates who did, or could have, run for president in the 1950s: Dwight Eisenhower, Douglas MacArthur, and Adlai Stevenson II.
General Dwight D. Eisenhower was the Supreme Commander of the Allied Expeditionary Force in Europe and planned the largest military operation in world history, the invasion of France at Normandy that ended the Nazi occupation in Europe and led to the end of World War II. He later served as military governor of U.S.-occupied Germany, president of Columbia University and the first supreme commander of NATO. And, of course, he was the 34th President of the United States, one of the most popular, chosen in two landslide elections. As president, Eisenhower expanded civil rights legislation by signing the Civil Rights Act of 1957, sent Army troops to enforce integration of schools in Little Rock, Arkansas, and integrated the U.S. Armed Forces. Among his other achievements, he created NASA, authorized the Interstate Highway System, built up America’s nuclear arsenal, and ramped up the Cold War with the Soviet Union.
Eisenhower was one of the great figures of the 20th century, a successful military leader and one of the few in history who transitioned to being a great peacetime government leader. Very popular throughout his lifetime, his notoriety seems to have diminished over time—not given the full recognition that he deserves—maybe because he lacked the flamboyance and controversy of the presidents that came before and after him.
General Douglas MacArthur graduated at the top of his class at West Point, served in World War I, became the Army's youngest major general, was president of the American Olympic Committee for the 1928 Summer Olympics, and served as commander of U.S. Army Forces in the Far East and Supreme Commander of the Southwest Pacific Area during World War II. MacArthur officially accepted the surrender of Japan on September 2, 1945, and oversaw its occupation. Awarded numerous accolades, MacArthur’s leadership of the United Nations’ invasion of North Korea during the Korean War went surprisingly poorly, and his attempt to escalate the conflict, and public contradictions of President Harry Truman and American foreign policy, led to Truman relieving MacArthur of his command at a time when MacArthur was extremely popular in the U.S.
MacArthur was a brilliant military leader. But he was also a difficult man, and some say a power-hungry individual. MacArthur refused to hold Japanese Emperor Hirohito accountable for his actions, did not allow investigations of the emperor, and insisted that Hirohito could not and should not be indicted for war crimes. And MacArthur did what no active-duty service member should ever do—he publicly criticized and disobeyed orders from his commanding officer, in this case the president of the United States.
Adlai Stevenson had been elected the governor of Illinois before running twice against Eisenhower for President, losing badly both times. Stevenson enlisted in the U.S. Navy, though too late to serve in World War I, after which he studied law, and under President Franklin D. Roosevelt, served as Principal Attorney and special assistant to the Secretary of the Navy. Later, under President John F. Kennedy, Stevenson served as the United States Ambassador to the United Nations for four years until his death.
Stevenson was a respected intellectual with strong ideals. He wanted a second term as governor of Illinois, where he had made limited progress in implementing reforms such as depoliticizing the state police force. President Truman convinced Stevenson to run when Truman decided not to seek another term. But Stevenson was no firebrand like Truman; nor did he have a resume of accomplishments like Eisenhower or MacArthur.
Eisenhower and Stevenson both ran for president in 1952 and again in 1956. MacArthur had long-held presidential ambitions and was pressured to run but decided against it. Let us suppose that he did decide to run, and that the United States had decided to implement ranked-choice voting, or RCV, as is being proposed in Nevada.
In an election between these three candidates, voters would likely have been split between war heroes MacArthur and Eisenhower. Eisenhower served under MacArthur for seven years, but during World War II a rift between the men developed. In an election between the two, that rift would no doubt have become public and split their constituents. And so it’s not just possible but likely that Eisenhower voters and MacArthur voters both would have ranked Stevenson as their second choice.
And the result? Adlai Stevenson would have likely reached his lifelong goal of becoming President of the United States. Supporters of RCV say that’s a good thing. They argue that with RCV, the “least extreme” candidates get into office. But that’s not what the majority of people wanted at that time. Adlai Stevenson may not have been a bad president, but he was not the person that most Americans wanted. America had just been through two devastating world wars and wanted a strong military leader to prevent a third one. Right or wrong, good or bad, our system is supposed to ensure that Americans get the leaders they vote for, not the leaders that some artificial voting system determined by elite pundits forces upon them.
When RCV has been tried in state and local elections, it has led to numerous problems, including delays in determining a winner, reduced voter turnout due to confusing voting rules and the elimination of votes due to “incorrect” voting. Proponents of RCV claim that it reduces the polarization of political parties, increases diversity of elected officials, increases turnout and engagement of voters of color, and decreases negative campaigning. However, studies show that just the opposite happens. Most jurisdictions that instituted RCV since at least 1974 repealed it soon afterwards. And several states have banned RCV altogether.
Ranked-choice voting is not a way to get great candidates elected. The way to do that is to put up great candidates and convince voters to vote for them. Approving Ballot Question 3 will make RCV the law of the land for many years to come, with a long, difficult path to ever overturning it. Vote no on Ballot Question #3 for ranked-choice voting.
Great story, Bob. Your realistic scenario perfectly explains the issues involved with multivoting.
I'm sure you recall I share your opposition to RCV. However, I do support a special form of positional voting. https://zeidman.substack.com/p/hurray-for-second-choice/comment/52612309
I wonder about your reconstructed rankings. You assume that Stevenson would have been the most popular second choice, with Eisenhower and MacArthur supporters presumably seeing the other candidate as the least favorite.
I'm not old enough to remember that time, but I suspect that Eisenhower would have been the most popular second choice, not Stevenson, with Stevenson the farthest to the left and MacArthur the farthest to the right. It would be fun to see if anyone conducted speculative polls in 1952, for example, to test support for MacArthur.